Nations, especially when governed by innovative and inspiring leaders can leapfrog into exemplary status, becoming a hub of impressive activities, from where the rest of the world can learn. Conversely, if the “beautyful ones” as Ayi Kwei Armah expressed it, are absent from leadership positions, nations can stagnate, making a norm of mediocrity and underachievement, or disappear altogether, like the “lost civilisation of Atlantis”, from the map of the world.
As Nigeria approaches another round of elections, a little over a fortnight away, with characteristic trepidation, it is instructive to prefigure the possibilities of regeneration or degeneration, of beckoning greatness or infamous diminution. Somehow, let us note, the worst case scenario paintings such as, “Nigeria will cease to exist by 2015”, have, so far, not materialised, but they continue to mushroom in updated forms, even among thoughtful elder statesmen. For example, last month, while responding to questions about the prospects of an “Igbo Presidency” in 2023 (there is a similar agitation for Yoruba Presidency, by the way), the Chairman of Ohanaeze Ndigbo Elders’ Council, and former Governor of Anambra State, Dr Chukwuemeka Ezeife, remarked ominously that, “Yes, we want Igbo Presidency but if by 2023 Nigeria has disintegrated, on what will the Igbo presidency float? I doubt if Nigeria will survive till 2023”.
Whatever one makes of Ezeife’s prediction, there is little doubt that the country is probably more divided – ethnic and religious polarities are more trenchant – than at any other time since the civil war. On Wednesday, to illustrate contending religious perceptions, the National Christian Elders’ Forum led by Lt. Gen. Theophilus Danjuma (retd), told the nation that what had become the Justice Walter Onnoghen saga could be situated within the context of Political Islam at war with Christian leaders. That view, which I find difficult to uphold, was countermanded by the Kaduna State Chapter for the Supreme Council for Sharia in Nigeria, which lined up behind the appointment of Justice Tanko Mohammad. In other words, in matters that are predominantly secular, religious interest groups are entering the fray in ways that play up religious bipolarity. So, rather than religion becoming a bulwark for the anti-corruption crusade, it reflects and refracts underlying and pre-existing tensions.
It is a long story to rehearse how we got into this state of affairs, but in recent times, it may not be unconnected with the spectral murders of farmers in the Middle Belt by sections of the Fulani militia protesting anti-grazing laws. The point to note, therefore, is that from the perspective of unity and focus, underpinnings of greatness, the nation is in a shambles and there are serious questions over its survival, and in what form. That question is for now, occluded by the forthcoming elections but it can resurge intently, if, for any reason, the elections are mismanaged.
Whoever emerges as President in February will have to face up to the current dishevelled status of national unity, which tends to undermine every effort to carry Nigeria beyond its limping condition. A related point concerns the current state of security which remains a sore point, not just with the recrudescence of the insurgency in the North-East, but with kidnappings, gang wars, the relentless movement and encroachment of Fulani herdsmen around the Middle Belt and the Northern part of Yorubaland, as well as sensational murders of members of the political elite including military generals. If this trend continues, insecurity of lives and property could escalate and become more direct threats to stability and livelihood. Beyond campaign slogans, there is a need to reinvent the institutions of the state, the security apparatus especially, as well as maintain a firm law and order mien that can curtail an increasingly vexing challenge fuelled by youth unemployment, demographic explosion, and poorly equipped security institutions. Hence, troubling uncertainties around the national question are overlaid by nuances of an imploding nation-state, buffeted by considerable internal disorder.
There is another front to introspect about in the context of what the country will look like in another four years, namely, the economy and the possibility that we can create wealth quickly enough to douse the rising poverty index and refute the appellation of having become the poverty capital of the world. Poverty, even in extreme forms, can be viewed in statistical terms. It is more telling when it is seen in human misery terms, the denial of opportunities, the acceptance of a relegated and abased sustenance, the frustrations of a desperate humanity living on the brink of extinction. Whatever economic model is preferred, if it ignores this dimension, it becomes an exercise in futility, and pushes Nigerians to the brink of a social tornado waiting to happen.
In order to reduce the possibility of disastrous uprisings and irritable excesses of a populace bearing the yoke of adversity, we must come up with a new paradigm of governance which totally does away with a circumstance in which legislators and office holders live in obscene affluence while the majority endures lives that go constantly from bad to worse. This is an agenda that has been much discussed but not implemented. There is much talk about reducing the cost of governance but no government hitherto had had the courage to actually implement it. If matters continue to drift in this area, it will translate into weak legitimacies for sitting governments, as well as constitute a challenge to the very concept of democracy.
As we look at the prospects of Nigeria in another four years, we must factor the declining quality of lives occasioned by erratic and poor service delivery in virtually every department of social and economic endeavours. From underfunded and third-rate quality of education, through badly unkempt roads, ill-clad health institutions, to the perennial woes of electricity consumers, Nigerians have always had a raw deal. Government after government has promised amelioration without fulfilling it, with so much public money going down the drain. There are of course, a few exceptions to this unhappy narrative but they are too few to count. Another four years of misgovernance and statutory inefficiency will mean that the country will become far less livable than it already is. The fact that several international reports suggest that Nigeria is one of the worst places to be born on earth, even when it is not in a period of war, foreshadows what may happen in the absence of a governance turnaround on the journey to 2023.
To be sure, some of the problems such as the price fluctuations of our major foreign exchange earner are foundational and cannot be solved in the short term. They belong to the category of issues about which we can do little beyond the diversification of our revenue base. But there are things we can change, for instance, by not maintaining the borrowing spree which has landed us back in the class of highly indebted nations, with associated consequences. In sum, what Nigeria will look like, or whether there would be a Nigeria at all in four years, is a consequence of the choices that we make or fail to make. The nation is on a leash. What can turn the tide is the quality of leadership, and of civil society that address themselves to ensuring that the worst does not happen.
Credit: Ayo Olukotun, Punch