When a political leader becomes decidedly obstinate in nature, journalists and observers often run out of the right superlatives to describe his daily action. The President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), reflects this sentiment adequately well. The Nigerian population and the Presidency currently live in a parallel universe, which spells trouble of a magnitude no one can yet accurately predict. And, if running out of superlatives is an issue in this scenario, then, historical parallels are always on hand to help shed light on the gathering storm. First, was the “winter of discontent” in the United Kingdom in 1979. The Labour Party, under the Premiership of Jim Callaghan, had been in power (except 1970-1974), more or less, from 1964 through the 1970s, and the country had grown weary of its management of the economy. In fact, there was a deep-seated mood for a fundamental change of political direction felt in the country at large, but totally unacknowledged, indeed ignored, by the Labour government. When the Prime Minister arrived back from an international summit in the Caribbean country of Guadeloupe, in 1979, workers had downed tools up and down the country, there had been an intermittent run on the British pound sterling, inflation had reached 10% from its low base of 1.9%, the government had tried to impose a wage freeze, which was stoutly resisted by the trade unions, mortuaries were full of unburied corpses, rubbish left on the streets uncollected etc.
On stepping out of London’s Heathrow Airport, a scrum of reporters rushed towards the Prime Minister and asked him to comment on “the mounting chaos” in the country. He replied: “I don’t think other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos”. The following day, one of the tabloid newspapers, “The SUN”, headlined: “Crisis? What Crisis?” as the proper attribution for the Prime Minister’s apparent disconnect from reality. The Labour government fell a couple of months later, ushering in a Conservative government that stayed in power for the next 18 years. Sweeping economic and political changes were introduced. It became, in fact, a revolution without firing a shot. The British society was radically and fundamentally transformed, and the rest, as they say, is history.
Also, bear in mind, while Britain was struggling with its “mounting chaos”, Nigeria, too, was reeling under the stale and dreary military regime of General Yakubu Gowon in the same historical period. Gowon had stayed in power for an unbroken nine years and, (consumed by the aural of his own self-importance), had become divorced from reality. Rather than face up to the task at hand, he too embarked on an official trip to Kampala, Uganda, to attend an OAU Summit. A few days after his departure, on July 29 1975, Colonel Joe Nanven Garba, of the Nigerian Army, announced Gowon’s overthrow from power as he was observed adjusting his microphone, listening to the proceedings inside the conference hall. An aide was filmed whispering the bad news live into his ear.
Last Saturday, June 19, 2021, Buhari flew to Ghana where he is currently attending the 59th Ordinary Session of the Economic Community of West African States, Authority of Heads of State and Government in Accra.
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it, so the saying goes. Another head of state, divorced from reality, putting Nigeria on stage at an international forum while the roof on his house burns. So, is Buhari doomed to repeat history then? Or, has he learned enough from history to avoid its sharp edge? He knows what happens when a disconnect leader is found junketing abroad, hobnobbing with foreign leaders and creating a false impression of normalcy at home. The President and his Aso Rock legion of ministers and countless aides live in a bubble, of course. Buhari’s grip on the armed forces is by far the strongest of any others before him. All the security personnel and topmost administrative henchmen are his handpicked kith and kin, loyal to the hilt. The Riot Act has been read to the restless civilians who might for once doubt the resolve of this omnipresent leader. He has even blocked the masses’ access to a valuable means of communication, the Twitter, as it happens, in a fit of pique. There will be no sudden announcement of a change in leader while Buhari is attending to stately affairs in neighbouring Ghana, since the home turf is secured for the President for the foreseeable future. Or, is it not?
Let us be clear. Nigeria cannot, and will not stay as it is; it must adapt or die. It is not about the personal preference of Buhari, neither can change be suppressed by the coterie of heavily armed security personnel milling around government buildings around Abuja and other state capitals throughout the federation. “There is something stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come”. So says the immortal Victor Hugo. The idea of a re-constituted, re-fashioned nation has become a must-do for Nigerians of all political hues. Buhari and others of his ilk are simply swimming against the tide of history by being so steadfastly against.
The terms of a new Nigeria are negotiable, and will be, one way or another, sooner rather than later. The biggest obstacle to the day of reckoning, however, is not even Buhari and his Brigade of Guards; it is the South-West power brokers. They hold the key. The ultimate irony is that it is the same group of people who fought and campaigned hard for a ‘true federalism’ for so long under the yolk of the military. The emergence of a Yoruba nation was regarded as a birth-right prior to 1999. These same elements now find themselves in a coalition with another segment of Nigeria determined to maintain the status quo, and preserved the in-built advantage for them. They sit in the same cabinet with an Attorney General of the Federation, and a taciturn President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, who clearly hold them and their rhetoric of ‘restructuring’ in utter contempt. Oh, how power corrupts…
We are talking of corruption of ideas and trading in principles here. If the South-West power brokers withdraw from the All Progressives Congress coalition right now, the Buhari regime would buckle under the intense pressure that would follow. Consequently, it is in their interest to sustain the regime until the baton is passed onto them, they think, in a couple of years. Consequently, they have been busy dialling down the rhetoric of ‘restructuring’ and ‘separatism’ from within their own ranks. It has to be said though, that, there are some well-meaning figures amongst them, who genuinely believe in the imperative of a ‘New Nigeria’ – still. Their own sense of realpolitik dictates that acquisition of political power is a prerequisite for making that a reality. Based on that, power shift to the South-West should be the focus of debate and negotiation at this point in the electoral cycle. ‘Seek ye the political kingdom first, and all else will follow’. This is naïve optimism at best; a calculating ego trip at worst. The basis upon which the civilian government came into power since 1999 is the cancerous tumour (the 1999 Constitution) that needs to be surgically removed. Riding to power on the back of the same malignant substance the next time around would not make it any easier to cure the incurable.
That said, the political class in this country is blessed with an incredibly placid, compliant citizenry; suffering and smiling most of the time. But, surely, “suffering and smiling” has its limit. The pilfering, pillaging, parasitic elite holding them down will soon get their comeuppance.
Credit: Tayo Oke