This is a nation that learns too late, often sleepwalking into avoidable tragedies. Distinguished Political Science Professor, Richard Joseph, a consistent reader of this column, it was who reminded me in a condolence message, following the recent murder of Mrs Funke Olakunri, daughter of the Afenifere leader, Pa Reuben Fasoranti, of the sad disconnect between policy discourse and problem-solving policy actions. Lamented Joseph, “The insecurity about which you have often written is the bitter consequence of so many opportunities missed”. This is like wishing that more decisive actions had been taken on the numerous suggestions made on insecurity by this columnist, other writers at home and abroad, as well as in numerous published documents by international organisations. I am not suggesting that no official attention is being paid to insecurity, now Nigeria’s number 1 problem, or that tackling it is a walk in the park. However, most people agree that once global organisations such as International Crisis Group began to warn of the possibility of a humanitarian emergency in Nigeria in 2019, focused and sustained attention as well as building proactive scenarios, rather than intermittent drives, would become the order of the day.
In a similar vein, for several months now, newspapers and social media have been awash with stories of the activities of mainly but not exclusively Fulani bandits and herdsmen in the South-West, kidnapping people for ransom, ambushing motorists on its highways, notorious for their potholed and irregular terrain, such as the Ife-Ibadan Expressway, Ilesha-Akure Expressway, among others. Some of the stories may have been exaggerated or fabricated but several, including one involving a Professor of Medicine from the Obafemi Awolowo University, Olayinka Adegbehingbe, who had to cough up N5m for ransom, are evidently true. Following a familiar pattern, police rise to spirited action only after the event had occurred, only to relapse to their usual laid-back and private toll-collecting mien. Of course, and as this columnist has repeatedly argued (see for example ‘Lamentable response to unending security jitters’. The PUNCH, Friday, March 22, 2019), serious capacity, psychological and infrastructural deficits hamper the police and other security institutions in performing their duties. The point, however, is that following a yet limited number of attacks, though not all are documented, the average Yoruba man, has come down with a sense of siege and paranoia. A month ago, a senior colleague and I were travelling from Ibadan to Osogbo in connection with a research project, and I would not forget the earnestness with which he kept asking me what the chances of being ambushed by herdsmen in the course of the journey were. Interestingly, former President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, in his latest letter to President Muhammadu Buhari, of which more later, alluded to the psychology of fear, piggy-backing on what may yet be, to borrow Buhari’s language, “isolated incidences”.
Before getting to this matter of isolated incidences, it should be noted that the Zamfara saga, in which kidnaps and murders occur almost on a daily basis, also began as isolated cases. For, there are reasons to believe that the South-West may have entered the first stage of what may yet become, a worst case Zamfara scenario; these include the surge in illegal mining activities in several towns around Ilesha, Ife, as well as Oke-Ogun, the rise in reported cases of herdsmen terrorism, as distinct from herdsmen- farmers’ clashes, as well as statistics, subject to verification, of the sizable presence of Fulani militias in several forests in different parts of Yorubaland. A preventive perspective to security would have taken this conversation seriously the moment they began to appear in the media; to have waited until a cause celebre, i.e. a vivid injury affecting the Yoruba nation occurred, points to the often argued need for a total overhaul of security institutions and infrastructure, and this brings me to the content and tenor of Obasanjo’s much publicised letter.
If we exempt, one or two political jibes and innuendos, Obasanjo’s letter could have been written by one of the brighter professors in Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo’s office. It collated the issues, forthrightly analysed them, remote sensing possible dangers, building scenarios, most of them frightening, were the current situation, especially in the South-West, to go unchecked. In a season when respected political gladiators from the South-West are, for political reasons, too tongue-tied to even utter the word, Fulani, Obasanjo’s letter can be regarded as a departure, but if you ask the question, was the letter appropriate? I would give the same answer I gave in January 2019, when I commented on Obasanjo’s letter described as a special statement to Buhari (see ‘Obasanjo and Buhari’s second term agenda, The PUNCH, Friday, January 26, 2019). I said, at the time, that it is extremely rare in advanced democracies, to find former Presidents frontally taking on incumbents, in order not to create a run on presidential legitimacy, That is a way of saying that they privilege the need to protect the institution of the Presidency, and for that matter, the health of the system, above publicising, or even gloating on weaknesses and mistakes of the incumbents. Usually, they settle for implied criticism, rather than demonstrative, even dramatic opposition.
I can illustrate this point by recalling a remark made at an editorial board meeting of The Daily Times, where I was then a member, by a former managing director of the paper. Said he, “The reason, Ladies and Gentlemen, why we must fact-check, and not rush to publish is that The Daily Times is a giant, and anything read on its pages is taken extremely seriously, and as gospel truth. Other papers can get away with dilution, but we cannot”. Of course, that statement referred to The Daily Times in its heyday. Today, we would be talking about The PUNCH or The Guardian. The point, however, is that a former head of state, to paraphrase a well-known epigram, while carrying a big stick, must speak or squeak in a small voice, or whispers of pedigree, so as not to inflame an already tense situation. My point is that, if the objective was to advance policy building and resolve issues, Obasanjo, with due respect, should have reclused himself, on account of his weight, from the discourse. By settling for a rather spectacular intervention, Obasanjo diverted the issues, without intending to do so, from the problem at hand, to himself.
We mourn with the Fasoranti family, which has lost a noble and influential daughter, praying that her soul rest in peace. One way of honouring her is to work tirelessly to prevent a recurrence and to allay the fear of the Yoruba that they are under attack or are being targeted in a federation where the rules of the game and the horizon are far from clear. We must build a policy community with scholars, academics and strategic thinkers, interfacing with policymakers and security officialdom. That would not be enough. The much delayed but often talked about incentivising of security institutions, for maximum performance, must begin right away considering that a desultory force, lacking in morale, cannot answer the call of the hour.
Finally, we can no longer postpone, as several have argued, facing up to the ever recurrent national question, beginning with the formalisation of state police.
Credit: Ayo Olukotun, Punch