The 2015 presidential election in Nigeria is just a few days away. Since the postponement of the original election date in February, there has been a titanic shift from the way things were shaping up between the two major candidates. Just before the original election date was postponed, General Buhari was surging in popularity. At the time, the Jonathan campaign organization seemed to be in tatters; his messaging was poor, often conflicting and lacked the conviction of someone who really wanted the job.
On the security side, the unchecked and daring exploits of Boko Haram made the commander in chief look weak on security matters. Furthermore, a lot of things that one could argue were outside Jonathan’s control were happening in the country. For instance, oil price dipped and Jonathan was struggling to explain to the nation that the economy was not about to collapse in spite of the devaluation of the naira. The spate of defections from PDP to APC by opportunistic politicians did not help matters for Jonathan. It was during this period that I wrote a commentary titled, “Jonathan Handing the Presidency to Buhari on a platter of Gold”.
Then came the postponement of the election which was explained by Jonathan camp as a security measure. The lull created by the postponement helped the Jonathan campaign to regroup, re-craft their message and unleash attack dogs like Fani Kayode and Fayose on Buhari. At first, the verbal salvos that these guys were unleashing on Buhari seemed too frivolous but as time went on, slowly, they began to stick. Fayose unearthed the fact that the picture of a supposed Buhari interview in London was actually an interview conducted in Abuja Transcorp Hilton. It was Fayose and Kayode that alleged, when Buhari jetted out of the country to London to “speak at the Chatham house”, that he was actually there for medical attention. At first, Buhari’s handlers denied the allegation but in the end, Buhari conceded that he also got medical check-up while in Britain. All these inconsistencies began to add up and paint a picture of a campaign that was economical with the truth or plainly deceptive. This began to dim the rising prospects of Buhari and as I write, his support seems to be waning. I know people in the south east that started trending in his direction, just before the cancellation of the original election date in February, but have now made a U-turn and headed in Jonathan’s direction.
During the period after the election was cancelled, some good things began to happen in the country to Jonathan’s advantage. For starters, the war on Boko Haram, frankly spearheaded by Chadian, Nigerien and Cameroonian fighters, began to yield clear dividends. When the troops seized an important former Boko Haram stronghold, Jonathan was able to visit the area and address Nigerian troops. His handlers put on him a well-fitted combat camouflage that made him look like a real frontline battle commander. The uniform was a sharp contrast to the ill-fitting and amusing ceremonial white naval uniform that he used to don. The last time he wore the white naval outfit, someone joked that he was a “rear” admiral that stays in the rear while war rages in the frontline. But with the combat fatigues he wore to Baga, with swagger stick to match, he looked like a commanding officer in the war front. That graphic softened the hearts of many Nigerians who had been lambasting him for not visiting the battlefront where his troops were fighting and dying. The whole theatrics portrayed Jonathan as the man ready to rescue a nation under siege. Additionally, Buhari’s somnolent reaction to Boko Haram arrogance began to play into Jonathan’s hands. Some started insinuating that Buhari might be a closet sympathizer in spite of the fact that he had condemned the group a couple of times before. The postponement of the election date also allowed Nigerians to get over the shock of the devaluation of the naira and the dipping of oil price. Many now absolve Jonathan of any blame, saying that those issues are not peculiar to Nigeria.
It did not help APC that Buhari chose to jet out of the country for medical checkup and “rest” in the middle of the campaign. First, the action painted the picture of a man whose utterances did not square with his actions. For someone whose claim to fame is austerity, leaving the country to get medical attention abroad when there are hospitals in Nigeria did not square with Nigerians. His actions gave the impression that all the talk about selling off presidential jets and going austere if elected were more of election sloganeering than reality. Also, jetting out in the middle of a campaign to “rest”, played into the narrative of those who feel he is too old to handle the rigors of the presidency. All these continued to move him away from the realm of the “messiah” that some had started painting him as.
Since the postponement, Jonathan has been throwing some attractive bones to Nigerians. Knowing that Nigerians are clamoring for implementation of the recommendations from the national confab, he has been trumpeting the fact that he would implement them. This is winning him some supporters especially when some insinuate that Buhari and many northerners loath many of the recommendations. The reader should note that Buhari said he would implement them too.
The final straw that seems to be breaking the camel’s back is the issue of the damaging documentary that AIT has been broadcasting about Tinubu. Many see Tinubu as the true face of APC. In fact, Fani Kayode even alleged preposterously that there was a grand plan by APC for Buhari’s deputy to resign and make way for Tinubu to ascend. The allegation itself is preposterous but gained traction in some quarters with some damaging effect on APC. Once the documentary portraying Tinubu as “owning Lagos” through corruption aired, many started wondering how Buhari would fight corruption if an alleged epitome of corruption was his benefactor. Someone in Nigeria said to me that if Buhari ascends power, “Tinubu would do to Nigeria what he did to Lagos!”
Buhari even shot himself on the foot when he allegedly said in a campaign rally in Kano that if elected, he would have a blanket pardon for corrupt Nigerians from 1999 to 2015. Some now say he made that exemption for Tinubu. Effectively, his greatest claim to fame, which is fighting corruption and jailing corrupt Nigerians, has been neutralized by his own statement. Those who were originally attracted to him because of the tough talk about fighting corruption, now see him as the typical Nigerian politician.
Tinubu did not do himself or Buhari any favor in the way he has been handling the AIT documentary case. The documentary made specific allegations about specific land and real estate acquisitions, showing addresses and names of individuals. One would have expected that if Tinubu felt he was innocent, he would counter with a strong rebuttal, answering those charges one after the other. For example, if a piece of real estate or building attributed to him in the documentary is not true, he would simply say so. He is not doing that but merely asking the court to stop the documentary from airing because “it was damaging his reputation”. This is not exculpatory.
Also, between the time the original date of the presidential election was postponed and now, the health and fitness of Buhari has been damagingly called into question. To make matters worse, every time he was asked about his health, he would say he challenges the reporter to go to the field and see who tired first. But his answers continue to remind people of Umar Yaradua who knew he was very sick but whenever people asked about his health, he would challenge them to a game of polo. That turned out to be a subterfuge. Because Buhari did not answer the questions to the satisfaction of Nigerians, the specter of ill health now hangs over him and Jonathan is making hay with that. At every opportunity, Jonathan’s handlers now show pictures of him and wife running on the treadmill or exercising openly. One of those pictures posted on Facebook attracted comments like: “a fit president”, “young and fit commander in chief”. What has happened is that the narrative of Jonathan as young, fit, vibrant and able to handle the rigors of the presidency is gaining a lot of traction even if he is seen as clueless and too soft.
Another issue that plays into the hands of PDP occurred just a few days ago. During the presidential debate, which most of the candidates, including Jonathan attended, an empty podium with APC emblazoned on it, stood there. It continued to remind Nigerians that Buhari opted not to participate. It has attracted all kinds of comments, most unflattering for Buhari. Some see his absence as an attempt to dodge questions that he would not be able to answer like telling Nigerians how he planned to fix the economy or tame Boko Haram.
Many well-meaning Nigerians, including APC cried foul when the election was postponed by Attahiru Jega and by implication Jonathan. They called it a subterranean machination to get PDP back into the presidential game which they had started losing. Now, this writer believes that the postponement, even if done with intentions that are apolitical, has serendipitously turned the table in favor of Jonathan while Buhari’s star has started dimming! The lull created by the postponement gave Jonathan the time to regroup, change his message, visit the troops in Baga and look presidential. It also gave PDP the opportunity to openly distribute rice and money to Nigerians willing to mortgage their future on the altar of rice and naira. But that is politics for you: the art of seeking the upper hand or advantage by doing even the nastiest things in the nicest ways. Jonathan has gained the upper hand and momentum is on his side. This election is now his to lose although it is going to be a very close race.
HERE IS STAND
Alfred Obiora Uzokwe, P.E