Interim Government for Nigeria, Negotiated by the “International Community”? –Fubara David-West

Interim Government for Nigeria, Negotiated by the “International Community”?

By Fubara David-West

The Nigerian elections of 2015 are almost here. Happy new year, to you Nigeria and Nigerians, for making it to this point, without a major national crisis. The continuing existential threat to the country, from the criminally insane Boko Haram, together with all of the political noise about whether or not President Jonathan should be allowed to run for another term in office, seemed to create a treacherous political environment for the country, in 2014.

The fact that despite the Boko Haram threat, and in spite of the fact that the President’s party, the PDP, decided quickly to nominate him for another term in office, the country has emerged from 2014 as a vibrant African state is something Nigerians should celebrate.

At the same time, the idea that the country should expect a so-called Interim Government in 2015 was highlighted once again, by one of my Facebook friends as 2014 came to a close. It is an idea that has even been associated quite outrageously, with the former president Olusegun Obasanjo. The suggestion is that such a government would be negotiated by the “international community,” in order to prevent a collapse of Nigeria.

The first part of the proposition should be forcefully repudiated. There should not be any interim government in Nigeria. There will be no interim government in Nigeria.

The second part of the proposition is also untenable. No state or other international actor wants to take off the hands of Nigerians, their citizenship responsibilities and burdens, unless of course, Nigeria collapses in the face of a raging violence, which becomes a threat to international peace and security. The collapse has to occur first, followed by a resultant threat to international peace and security.

A contained collapse, would not become a major threat to international peace and security. Indeed, some multinational corporations might welcome the collapse, and put pressure on their home states, and venture capitalists, to move in and pick up the valuable debris from the collapse.

Furthermore, the global hegemon, the United States of America has learned, after wasting trillions of dollars in Iraq and Afghanistan, that nation building should be left to citizens and their stakeholders. The lesson has been one of the factors that has pushed President Obama to adopting what I have called the Obama Doctrine.

The doctrine commits the United States, to protect and promote its national interests, especially in the developing world, without over-committing its men and materiel. Under the doctrine, for instance, the United States would use its awesome air power against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but only as a support measure for state and local forces, which are directly threatened.

It is noteworthy that Iraq and the Middle East region have been of great, and long-standing national interest to the United States. The United States recently fought a trillion-dollar war in Iraq, and yet, it is unwilling to commit huge resources, to saving that country from the so-called Islamic State, or ISIS.

Considering that, it seems obvious that the United States will not pour its resources into a collapsing Nigeria. At best, we should expect the reaction of the United States, its allies and the United Nations, to be similar to their reactions to the situation in a failing Somalia several years ago, and to the recent situation in Sudan.

By the way, the experience with South Sudan, which continues to face grave political challenges, will probably tell most of the major international actors, to stay away from a collapsing Nigeria, until the dust settles.

Might China and Russia be interested in securing some resources from a collapsing Nigeria? Yes, however, Russia has its own problems, which are right now overwhelming it. It wants markets for its gas and oil, just as any part of Nigeria which emerges from a collapse will. China, for its part, is not about move into a Nigeria, without carefully considering the costs and benefits of doing so, especially if it sees that the United States, and its allies such as the United Kingdom, which was once a colonial ruler of Nigeria are not enthusiastic about moving in. (abujaNig, FD-W)