Professor of History and chair in the Humanities at the University of Texas, Toyin Falola, has warned that if national leader of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bolaji Ahmed Tinubu dumps President Muhammadu Buhari, he (Buhari) runs the risk of losing popularity before the 2019 elections.
When he answers questions from Punch, Prof. Falola noted that Tinubu is the life wire of Buhari’s election come 2019, adding that the former Lagos State governor may also decide to withdraw support for the President.
According to him, the South East, South South, Middle Belt and Kanuri have already dumped Buhari.
Falola stated, “We don ’t know what Bola Tinubu (APC national leader) will do because if he says that he will not support Buhari, the Southwest is gone.
“Already the South–south, Southeast, Middle Belt and the Kanuri are gone. The Boko Haram insurgency is a (source of) deep anger of the Kanuri against the Fulani that has merged into the pre -existing Boko Haram issue.
“The conflict between the Kanuri and the Fulani dates back to the time that the caliphate was established.
“Uthman Dan Fodio established the caliphate. When he wanted to conquer the Kanuri, they refused, which led to the collapse of the dynasty and the emergence of the current dynasty. An anti Fulani movement is already building in the Northeast .
“Once Tinubu leaves him, that is the end of his regime. That is one scenario.
“The second scenario is that he (Buhari) controls the whole security apparatus and the Independent National Electoral Commission. He will drop electronic voting and win the election.
“You don’t have to ask me why. He only has to fill the ballot boxes and he is back in Aso Rock . So , he also has his own nuclear option which is ‘if you don’t want me , I can rig the election’.
“He has the power to do that. In the next 12 months, there will be no governance in Nigeria. What we are going to have is politicking ; nobody will be talking about development anymore. They will talk about it as empty promises , which is what they are clever at doing.”