Reuters sought some people’s opinion on how the election may go and what Buhari as civilian President can do if he wins the 2015 presidential election. Here it goes:
Even those willing to overlook his autocratic past might question whether he can keep his promises. Corruption is so entrenched that dismantling it could take generations.
“People love the anti-corruption, but if they dig a bit deeper: what does it actually mean? And can he pull it off?” said Akindele, adding that it could mean turning on some of his top backers in the APC, which he is unlikely to be able to do.
Power in democratic Nigeria depends on patronage networks, and feeding them is essential if a politician wants to keep it.
Promises to restore security after a brutal five-year insurgency by Boko Haram also might be easier to make than keep, with the Islamist group demonstrating remarkable resilience.
But sources in both parties say more prosaic factors may influence voting. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, will do better in the north, where he’s hugely popular. Jonathan will sweep much of the overwhelmingly Christian south and southeast — his home oil producing Niger Delta region and areas around.
Christians in the religiously-mixed “Middle Belt” will vote Jonathan; their Muslim neighbours, Buhari.
Much will depend on whether the 50-50 split Christian-Muslim Yoruba southwest, including Nigeria’ biggest city Lagos, votes for Jonathan. It did last time, but since then southwestern elites have turned against him. Buhari’s party power base is now in Lagos — last year it was seen as largely a northern party.
“Last year people were frustrated the alliance fell apart so voted for Jonathan out of protest,” Ojudu said.
“That won’t happen again.” (Yahoo, Reuters)