It is said never to kick a man when he is already down. Well, ‘Arakunrin’ (gentleman) Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu, SAN, is a man both on top and on the up. He has just won a hard-fought governorship election in Ondo State, held last Saturday, October 10, 2020. The result was declared the following day, Sunday, October 11, 2020, by the Independent National Electoral Commission’s Returning Officer, Professor Idowu Olayinka, giving Akeredolu of the All Progressives Congress a thumping 292, 830 votes against his closest rivals, Eyitayo Jegede of the Peoples Democratic Party, 195,791, and Agboola Ajayi, of the Zenith Labour Party, 69,127 votes respectively. There were 17 political parties in all at the election. Akeredolu got more votes than all the opposition candidates combined, winning 14 out of the 18 local government areas in the state. Ajayi, his deputy governor, who had defected to run against him on the platform of ZLP, lost his own local government to the APC. By any account, this was a landslide victory. So, a bit of a post-election knockabout here and there on Akeredolu would not hurt too much.
Whilst this may sound like putting a dampener on a personal triumph for the man in his moment of glory, this column in fact confidently predicted the outcome of the election a few weeks back: “While money and party provide the foundation for victory, record and the antecedents of the individual personalities involved in the contest provide the tipping point. It makes the crucial difference between victory and defeat. For once, the party has been wise not to remove the incumbent governor in Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu, as its candidate for the election. He is expected to coast to victory on account of his record and personality relative to the other candidates” (See, “Edo election: Kick in the teeth for APC”, The PUNCH, September 22, 2020) Dispassionate commentary is the bread and butter of a serious column anywhere. It serves the purpose of public education, and advances the cause of objectivity and truth. In an age where most people go into politics either for daily bread or for relevance, Akeredolu already had both aplenty before venturing into the murky world of canvassing and soliciting for votes, and getting his hands ‘dirty’, which he did not always manage very well during the campaign. Nonetheless, of the candidates, the Ondo electorate were discerning enough to separate the wheat from the chaff.
That said, Akeredolu is a man of mixed political fortunes. He got into partisan politics later in life than many of his peers, but quickly rose through the ranks by dint of his appealing background and personal accomplishments. He is (still) adeeply private, atypical leader, who does not suffer fools gladly. He is intense and cerebral as opposed to being charismatic and flamboyant. He cares too much about finer details of policy when others would simply pander to the prevailing wind, making policy on the hoof. His detractors see him as rather awkward and tenacious, his admirers see a steely determination of a quiet man on a mission. To them, “Aketi” (as he is affectionately known), is Moses destined to lead his people out of the wilderness. Are they right? Akeredolu’s victory lays bare many of the fault lines within the APC. In his victory he stated: “The resounding victory of our great party, the All Progressives Congress, throws an open challenge to all stakeholdersnot to choose the path of complacency. We have noted the few dissenting voices of protest in this referendum. We heard them loud and clear”. Mr Governor, you are wrong. What took place was an election; not a referendum. Referenda are usually single-issue oriented. You indeed garnered votes from all corners of the state, not on a single referendum issue, but on a whole host of your achievements up and down the state. There is no need to diminish your own accomplishment by dubbing it a “referendum”. It was not. But, that too is a reflection of how personal the governor feels about the outcome.
Thus, the most glaring fault line which Akeredolu’s victory has laid bare is the role and influence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the uncontested national leader of the APC, the “Asiwaju of Yorubaland”, “Jagaban Borgu”, “Lion of Bourdillon” amongst his many other accolades. He is the architect of many APC winning formulas around the country, and a colossus in the post-military Nigerian political settlement. But, it is not all love for him within the party, he has his own detractors too. They are powerful, and they mean business. It is widely assumed that Akeredolu came into Ondo politics in 2011 as a protégé of Tinubu, who masterminded his elevation to the top of the APC (formerly ACN) ticket for the governorship election against the then governor Olusegun Mimiko of the Labour Party. The real protégé of Tinubu at that time, in Ondo, was in fact Olusegun Abraham, who had also wanted to secure the party’s ticket for governor. Although he had served as Attorney General of Ondo State (1995-1999), and President of the Nigerian Bar Association (2008/2009), Akeredolu was seen as an outsider and a greenhorn. Tinubu was at first reluctant to throw his weight behind him, but once he had been selected as the party’s torchbearer, did so with the zest and gusto of a warrior, who had everything to lose. The impression was thus created that Tinubu had “sponsored”, even “imposed” him on the party in the state.
Having fought and lost the 2012 election in Ondo State, it was felt by many in the party, especially Tinubu, that a fresh face, and a more voter-friendly “grassroots” politician in the person of Abraham be selected instead of Akeredolu in 2016. There lies the open parting of ways as Akeredolu outmanoeuvred the wily Tinubu to become the party’s candidate at the election, which he won. He defeated Eyitayo Jegede of the PDP in the 2016 election against all expectations. Akeredolu had finally arrived as a formidable political operative in his own right. Fast forward, then, out of the 12 candidates that vied for the APC ticket in July 2020, Abraham, the erstwhile Tinubu protégé, was disqualified from contesting. This was further proof of the “rift” between Tinubu and Akeredolu, who is seen as an ally of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd), Dr. Kayode Fayemi, and the other free-willy intelligential in the party apparatchik, against the political ambition of the grassroots, party activists routing for Tinubu for President in 2023. It is an artificial contest between the beauty and the beast, between the brain and the brawn. And, it will fester and intensify from now on. That is not necessarily a bad thing as long as it can be turned into a battle of ideas, not personality.
Besides, a challenge to Tinubu’s seeming invincibility in the party, from the ‘Young Turks’, can only serve to strengthen and make him a better leader, instead of one who takes the voter for granted. However, if he and his loyalists are to advance henceforth, the party’s indirect primary system must be jettisoned in favour of direct election. Direct primary is what grassroots politics is all about. The Tinubu camp are second to none in that regard. All in all, the next President of Nigeria must result from a contest, not a coronation. In the USA, for instance, if Barack Obama had treated the Clinton dynasty in the Democratic party with too much reverence as many (even in the black caucuses) had urged, he would never have made it to the White House as he did in 2008. On that sobering thought, let us look forward to the drama within the APC with relish, as it unfolds.
Credit: Tayo Oke, Punch