Declining opportunities, rising insecurity and a bleak economic outlook have created an environment polluted by anger. This anger has bred a growing rank of political fundamentalists and fanatics. There is palpable anger on Nigeria social media platforms whenever politics is at issue and what is at issue these days, if not the 2023 elections? In the social media ecosystem, frustration with the political class has given rise to a dangerous mix of radical, utopian politics, where intimidation and enmity are the rules of engagement. Politics in a democracy assumes tolerance, representation and openness. However followers of Peter Obi (the Obidients) and Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu (BATists) on social media have become implacable political fundamentalists or fanatics. The rabid antagonism and intimidation calls into question their understanding of rationality, expression of public passions and representation. If we must make progress politically, we must be rational, tolerant and understanding of other people’s choices and respect differences of opinion. Yes, 2023 is an important election. Indeed, 2020-2030 is a make or mar decade for Nigeria.
Let me put this upfront: I will be dissecting the 2023 elections, not as a partisan player but as an analyst. None of what I write here represents the opinion of my principal, the governor of Ondo State, Arakunrin Oluwarotimi Odunayo Akeredolu (SAN) or the position of the Ondo State government.
That out of the way, I make bold to declare that the 2023 elections will be a departure from the norm established since 1999, around an establishment duopoly. Students of politics may have observed that established duopolies have been challenged and dismantled in the past decade in Mexico, France, and five months ago in Chile, among other places. Even in South Africa, the African National Congress (ANC) is under threat. In Nigeria, to paraphrase the Italian philosopher Antonio Gramsci, the old order is refusing to yield ground, making it difficult for a new one to be born.
2023 will be a four-way race and could go into a run-off for the first time since 1999. You do not need an American agency to tell you which way the wind is blowing. I believe whoever gains a first ballot victory under the ‘first-past-the-post’ system, is not going to get more than 37% of the total votes cast. Those who follow politics closely, will recall that the late Governor Ajimobi was elected for the first time with just 32.6% of the votes, in a fiercely contested four-horse race.
The winner in 2023 might struggle to win a convincing control of the National Assembly. Therein lies the issue of legitimacy, which is key. In terms of fiscal health, whoever wins in 2023 will inherit a poisoned chalice. He will face the daunting reality of a technically insolvent economy heading towards bankruptcy. It is pertinent to note that for the first time since 1960, Nigeria’s bonds are rated as ‘junk’ status! This did not happen even during the civil war. In 1962, faced with an existential economic crises caused by falling commodities prices, the then Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa put together “Austerity Measures”, with the support of all parties, as well as the unions and civil society. This national democratic agreement remains the high point of democracy in Nigeria. Winning a convincing majority in the National Assembly is important for the task ahead. How will a president elected with no more than 37% of the vote ‘rally the republic’ in order to carry out very painful and indeed brutal reforms? That is why legitimacy matters.
A salient point in the coming elections is the rise of political awareness by first time registrants. This is not a flash-in-the-pan social media phenomenon, it will be translated into votes. Kwankwanso will be a focus of mounting angst and disaffection in Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa and parts of Niger State. The sufficiently angered Obidients, who are disaffected and frustrated by the insouciant establishment could get Peter Obi up to six million votes nationwide. Turnout will be the highest since 1999.
The Obi and other factors could deny Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu the 25% vote spread needed for a first ballot victory in many of the states of the South-south, South-east and in Benue State. Jagaban’s anticipated sweep of the South-west has no historical antecedent and it has been punctured in both Ekiti and Osun. Historically, “Ọmọ wa ni ẹ jẹ́ ó ṣeé” is unreal. Awolowo lost seventeen seats in the Western Region in 1959 and the Awo sweep in 1979 was a one-off phenomenon.
Given the current situation, Jagaban will average 55-60% aggregate in the South-west.
Early in day, I predict an Atiku vs Jagaban second ballot, unless Tinubu moves fast and makes inroads with the Evangelical Church Winning All (ECWA) and other Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and reassures the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN).
For Tinubu to become president, the All Progressives Congress (APC) must work hard to prevent a runoff. If there is a runoff, voters can coalesce around Atiku and thereby enable make him to make 60% of the votes. A runoff will precipitate opinions against the same faith ticket. Jagaban must win a first ballot victory with 37% of the votes. Can he get that spread?
The issue for Jagaban is the spread. For example, can he make 25% in Taraba and Plateau States? Will there be a Christian revolt against the same faith ticket in Southern Kaduna? Given the disaffection in the country and increase in the number of registered voters, how will the Christian pockets in every Northern state and in the Middle Belt vote? What will the vote look like in Plateau State? It is very likely we could be back to the 1979 phenomenon of a 12 ⅔ spread.
Demographic changes, the EndSARS awakening and a changed electoral format with the use of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) has turned the framework upside down. It is a whole new ball game. At issue in Nigeria in the last decade and well into the future, are three salient issues – insecurity, the economy and jobs. Regardless of who wins, state police will become a reality, directly or by proxy. We cannot be secure with a central police command of less than 250,000 policemen to 200 million people. It is absurd.
On the economic front, we cannot develop by producing less than two million barrels of oil per day. Subsidy on petroleum cannot and must not continue. The obscene arbitrage on forex is unsustainable, given our deathbed production base. It has to go! Thankfully energy subsidy is near gone, although inefficiency and obsolete equipment is hampering the production, transmission and distribution of power. Whoever wins will have to find a way of making us take our poison. I believe President Buhari knows what to do but he is in a difficult situation. It would have been better if he had administered the poison during his honeymoon period. If he removes subsidy now, the possibility of civil unrest is very high and it will cost APC the election. I suggest he removes it before he leaves and lets the incoming government pick the pieces. At any rate, we have to face the reality of insolvency and take our poison. On jobs, there are many creative ways to put our young people to work. 2023 is a make or break presidential election. It can no longer be business as usual, as the EndSARS protests were a warning of what can happen. We need innovative approaches to create jobs and turn the youth bulge into a blessing.
In conclusion, I do not expect Peter Obi to win. If the Obidients eventually poll five to six million votes, that will send a strong signal to us that a new Nigeria of engaged and active citizenry is born.
Credit: Bamidele Ademola-Olateju